Saturday, March 14, 2015
Revealed: How Raila, Kalonzo & Wetangula Will Make Uhuru A One Term President (See Details)
An opinion poll appearing on the Star has shown how naivety on the President Strategist team will cost him the highest seat in the country. One of Jubilee undoing is the alienation of other tribes in Kenya. The arrogance by Jubilee of how they will rule the country in the next 20 years and the seat will revolve around the Kikuyu and Kalenjin means one thing-they don’t need other tribes on their side. This is interpreted that power is only confined among the two tribes.
Also Read: Ababu Namwamba Accused Of Being A Serial Mole Since His Campus Days…This Is What He Was Overhead Telling The President…(See Details)
Cord coalition is aware that they lost the last election at the voter registration stage. While they were busy dancing and telling the masses Vitendawili in campaign trails, Jubilee was busy urging all potential voters to register. Cord strategists will now use the same tyranny of numbers to dislodge the head of state from power in 2017. The number of supporters, if all register, will by far surpass that of the big two. This will only change of any of the other three big tribes side with Jubilee.
The strategy that appeared on the Star read in Part:
….the Akamba, the Luo, the Luhyia, the Kisii and the Coast in one political alliance, and with all potential voters registered, it hardly matters who the ruling Jubilee coalition may have on its side.
The next ‘tyranny of numbers’ – facts and figures
Kenya’s population can be roughly broken down as follows: Kikuyu 22 per cent, Luhya 14, Kalenjin 13, Luo 12, Kamba 11, Kisii seven, Meru 6, other African tribes 14 and non-African one per cent.
Now the interesting part of all this is that, of those ‘other African communities’ which make up 14 per cent of our population, roughly 10 per cent of these people are to be found at the Coast, with only 4 per cent in total accounting for the Embu, Maasai, Samburu, Somali, and so on.
Previously the Coast did not vote as a bloc in Presidential elections. But in 2013, the Coast voters all came out for Cord’s Raila Odinga. So, again, given Cord’s operational assumptions (that is that the two key vote blocs will remain intact; and all who can vote will be registered on both sides) we find that Cord goes into the 2017 election with about 54 per cent of the total vote locked up (Luhya, Luo, Kamba, Kisii and Coast). And Jubilee with a guarantee of only 41 per cent, or thereabouts, to start off with (Kikuyu, Meru, Kalenjin, and Embu); and a swing vote of maybe five per cent).
Of course, the Cord alliance has Jubilee to thank for this. When the Jubilee partisans keep boasting about how they intend to have the Presidency locked up for the next 20 years, alternating between Kikuyu and Kalenjin Presidents, how can they reasonably expect that there will be any major defections to their side?
The Jubilee partisans are being incredibly naïve with their ‘tyranny of numbers’ triumphalism, which was in all likelihood just a one-off, one pony trick fast one that was 100 per cent dependent on the element of surprise.